2005-03-04

$3.5 billion, I've got $3.5 billion! Do I hear $4.9?

...I certainly hope not. But it looks like something that was little more than an interesting news story a couple days ago is about to get even more interesting...

Tuesday, a Wall Street consortium made an offer to the NHL's Board of Governors to take the league and all its teams off their hands, at a price tag to the tune of $3.5 billion. While the league took the time to hear the half-hour presentation put together by the corporations' representatives, the whole thing was largely regarded as far-fetched. On average, teams would have received just over $110 million, which might sound good to some - the Mighty Ducks sold for $75 million last week - but richer teams like those in Toronto and Boston won't be eager to sell any time soon.

The consortium currently consists of Bain Capital Partners and Game Plan International, and spokespeople indicated that they plan to bring a large Canadian buyer into the mix, which should assuage Canadian fans' fears that the game is becoming even more Americanized. The companies also stated that under their plan, Gary Bettman would remain in his current capacity - which means that either they like what he's doing, or they don't want to scare anyone off just yet. According to Forbes, the NHL's teams are worth a combined $4.9 billion at this point in time, so Wall Street has a ways to go before it can truly be taken seriously. That figure, however, reflects a study done in November, before the season was cancelled, so most teams - especially those in the United States that already have waning fan bases - will see a drop in their worth.

The deal is bad news for players perhaps most of all; the consortium's offer came with a warning that the longer the lockout continued, the worse off they will be. Although this is something the NHLPA has heard before, they are certainly intimidated by the prospect of a single entity holding central ownership over all 30 clubs - that ownership will strive for parity across the league, which means that the days of teams battling over their services and throwing huge dollar signs at them would be a thing of the past. If the lockout drags on too long, it bring this possibility closer to a reality, since the values of franchises will continue to decline, and many more owners will be interested in unloading. As I previously mentioned, teams with more wealth and richer traditions - the Leafs and the Bruins, for example - are uninterested in selling at this point, according to president/CEO of MLSE Richard Peddie, and Bruins owner Jeremy Jacobs. But if these teams were somehow allowed to participate in the buyout from a purchasing perspective - not necessarily investing in other teams, but retaining their own, and dealing with Game Plan and Bain Capital as equal partners - they might be much more amenable to the deal.

These potential owners might be looking to trim the fat, meaning that teams like the Hurricanes would disappear, incrementally raising the NHL's talent level. This is just one of the probable changes they would be looking to make, both from a marketing standpoint and from changes in gameplay. Overall, though, I'm not a big fan of the idea...while I can't deny that a competitive team generates more revenue than a cellar-dweller, I also think that if these teams were in the right markets, they would sell tickets anyway. The Leafs' rough years from 1995-1997 didn't see a heavy decline in net worth, and the New York Rangers certainly still manage to sell tickets (and don't tell me that it's to see superstars; I'm not going to pay $70 to watch Jaromir Jagr pretend to care). The Boston Bruins have had trouble selling tickets for a few years now, but their position in the standings hasn't had much of an effect on that.

In general, I think that the idea of having 30 equally-talented teams overrated. The number of star players on a team doesn't necessarily mean that they'll go farther in the playoffs; just look at last year's Cup Final. Having a few powerhouses and a few punching bags in the league just seems like the natural order of things, and the teams at the top and the bottom don't stay the same forever; that's why the top draft pick goes to the worst team, after all. If this buyout idea continues for a little while longer, however, I wouldn't mind, and I doubt the owners would, either. Anything that puts more pressure on the NHLPA to strike a deal is fine by me.

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